ACS Monterey Bay Program for August 2005

A Crystal Ball for Future Climate Change: is the past prologue?

	Thursday, August 25, 2005 7 p.m. Refreshments, 7:30 p.m. Program Lecture Hall, Monterey Boatworks, Hopkins Marine Station, Pacific Grove (Across from American Tin Cannery Outlet Stores)
	Speaker: Franklin Schwing, Acting Director, NOAA/NMFS, Environmental Research Division, Pacific Grove

The Earth's climate is changing, perhaps more rapidly than at any time in history. Extremes in weather seem to be commonplace. El Niño, La Niña, global warming; are these real or media hype? What is really happening to our planet's climate system, and what -- or who -- is responsible? Should individuals take action to limit civilization's effect on global climate, and will it matter? Thoughtful scientific analysis -- based on direct measurements and indicators of past climate conditions -- and sophisticated computer models now allow us to describe the past climate state, separate natural and human causes of climate change, and begin to predict what the future holds for our weather and climate.

This lecture will describe the Earth's climate system, and how it creates our weather locally and worldwide. The past record of natural climate change, including phenomena such as El Niño, will be reviewed, with an eye toward how the consequences of recent and future human activity might be reflected in the global climate signal. Finally, an extremely long-range California "weather forecast" will be offered, based on the best available scientific understanding of how the climate is changing and is likely to change in the coming century.

Dr. Frank Schwing is an oceanographer with the National Marine Fisheries Service in Pacific Grove. His research is on climate change, including El Niño and La Niña, and its effects on ocean ecosystems and particularly marine fish stocks. He has a Ph.D. in Oceanography from Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, Canada. Dr. Schwing is also a visiting professor at the Naval Postgraduate School.

Related web pages:

• National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Grove

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